The playbook of repression: The Tanzanian temptation and democratic backsliding in Kenya ahead of the 2027 general elections
by admin on | 2025-12-04 07:52:28 Last Updated by admin on 2025-12-06 16:00:38
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Abstract
This paper presents a critical comparative study of the divergent political trajectories of Kenya and Tanzania between 2024 and 2025 to analyze the threat of democratic backsliding in Kenya. Kenya, exemplified by the youth-led, tribeless “Gen Z” movement, demonstrated the powerful efficacy of a digitally native civil society in forcing a major policy reversal and initiating a political “rupture” Conversely, Tanzania\'s 2025 General Elections marked a severe democratic regression characterized by institutional manipulation, the systematic suppression of viable political competition, and the calculated deployment of digital authoritarianism and state-engineered violence. The Tanzanian crisis, which involved a crippling six-day nationwide internet and social media shutdown costing over $200 million, offers a potent yet dangerous playbook of repression for Kenya’s political elite as they prepare for the pivotal 2027 General Election. The elite\'s central objective is to neutralize the threat of both the traditional opposition and the powerful youth civil society. The strategies may include compromising the independence of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), mimicking Tanzania’s institutional flaws, and imposing targeted or nationwide internet shutdowns to suppress mobilization and control the narrative. Furthermore, the escalation of state sanctioned violence and the continued impunity for abductions could be used to instill fear and suffocate the youth\'s political idealism. The battle for 2027 will determine whether Kenya continues the path of sustained dissent or succumbs to a calculated \"managed consensus\" and democratic backsliding, transforming its democracy from a volatile contest into a fabricated coronation. Keywords: Digital Authoritarianism, Democratic Backsliding, Gen Z Movement, Kenya 2027 General Elections, Tanzania 2025 Elections, Internet Shutdowns, Institutional Manipulation, Youth Activism
